Author Archives: James J Heaney

In Which I Am Right: Shadow Primary plus Kasich

In my recent piece on convention delegates, I speculated that, in the scrum to win the loyalty of as many delegates as possible, Ted Cruz would have the edge. Cruz has a strong organization, has been gearing up for precisely … Continue reading

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Conventional Chaos, Part 2: Delegated Disloyalty

I have a lot of friends who are asking a lot of questions about brokered conventions these days. In this series, Conventional Chaos, I’ll be explaining how a Republican party convention works… and why 2016’s convention could be very different from the dull … Continue reading

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Quantifying the Kasich Spoiler Effect

According to exit polls, if John Kasich dropped out of the presidential race, 45% of his voters would stay home.  37% would vote for Ted Cruz.  18% would vote for Donald Trump. These are the numbers FiveThirtyEight computed last week, which … Continue reading

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The March 15th Panic Has Begun: A Reply to Tim Alberta

Mr. Tim Alberta, a generally commendable fellow whose columns I typically enjoy, has a piece up at National Review today arguing that, if Donald Trump wins both Ohio and Florida tomorrow, it will be “nearly impossible” for his only viable competitor, … Continue reading

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The De Civitate Poor Man’s Stop-Trump Delegate Tracker

Skip To: May 3 | April 26 | April 19 | April 6 | March 22 | March 15 | March 12 | March 8 | March 6 | March 1 A few weeks ago, I wrote a fairly popular post, “Trump’s Delegate … Continue reading

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How Much Is Rubio Helping Trump? (P.S. You Too, Kasich)

UPDATE: Infographic now in HD high-definition. Our thanks to the artist, Mike Dupuis, for sending us the high-resolution file. In my last post, I predicted that Rubio’s continued presence in the race is not worth it, even in the extremely unlikely … Continue reading

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Conventional Chaos, Part 1: The View From 10,000 Feet

I have a lot of friends who are asking a lot of questions about brokered conventions these days. In this series, Conventional Chaos, I’ll be explaining how a Republican party convention works… and why 2016’s convention could be very different from the dull … Continue reading

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“Stop. Trump. Tonight.” A Caucus Speech

On Super Tuesday (1 March 2016, for those of you reading this on a Multivac archive in the far future), Minnesota went to the caucuses. For those of you who aren’t from caucus states, let me explain them quickly: caucuses … Continue reading

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