Author Archives: James J Heaney

GUEST POST: A Good and Proper Trouncing of Pro-Amendment Heffalumps and Woozles, by David Allender

This piece was published on Facebook on Sunday, November 4, 2012.  It is reposted with permission from the author.  My response is here. There is a particular kind of violence in this world that has always bothered me. It hides … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Mere Opinion | 1,257 Comments

Who Wins? A 2012 Projection Based on the Partisan Skew Hypothesis

In my recent (and surprisingly popular) post about the weirdly good polls the Democrats have been seeing recently, I suggested that the polls might be suffering from an unidentified systemic source of bias.  I promised a followup discussing the implications … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Horse Race, Politics | 1,796 Comments

The Great Democratic Turnout Miracle

During this cycle, likely voter polls have consistently shown more Democrats showing up to vote than Republicans. Actually, that is a bit of an understatement.  It is perfectly normal for Democrats to outnumber Republicans, even at the polls, even in strong Republican … Continue reading

Posted in Horse Race, Mere Opinion, Politics | 2,546 Comments