Category Archives: Analysis

De Civitate’s Delegate Loyalty Tracker

by James J Heaney Posted on 14 April 2016

UPDATE 10 MAY 2016: In light of Trump’s presumptive nomination, Saturday’s delegate results (which were basically “Everything’s Coming Up Trump”), and the fact that it has become even harder to track delegate loyalties now that there’s only one candidate in the … Continue reading →

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Conventional Chaos, Part 3: The Republican Rulebook

by James J Heaney Posted on 13 April 2016

I have a lot of friends who are asking a lot of questions about brokered conventions these days. In this series, Conventional Chaos, I’ll be explaining how a Republican party convention works… and why 2016’s convention could be very different from the dull … Continue reading →

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In Which I Am Right: Shadow Primary plus Kasich

by James J Heaney Posted on 25 March 2016

In my recent piece on convention delegates, I speculated that, in the scrum to win the loyalty of as many delegates as possible, Ted Cruz would have the edge. Cruz has a strong organization, has been gearing up for precisely … Continue reading →

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Conventional Chaos, Part 2: Delegated Disloyalty

by James J Heaney Posted on 24 March 2016

I have a lot of friends who are asking a lot of questions about brokered conventions these days. In this series, Conventional Chaos, I’ll be explaining how a Republican party convention works… and why 2016’s convention could be very different from the dull … Continue reading →

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Quantifying the Kasich Spoiler Effect

by James J Heaney Posted on 17 March 2016

According to exit polls, if John Kasich dropped out of the presidential race, 45% of his voters would stay home.  37% would vote for Ted Cruz.  18% would vote for Donald Trump. These are the numbers FiveThirtyEight computed last week, which … Continue reading →

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Conventional Chaos, Part 1: The View From 10,000 Feet

by James J Heaney Posted on 7 March 2016

I have a lot of friends who are asking a lot of questions about brokered conventions these days. In this series, Conventional Chaos, I’ll be explaining how a Republican party convention works… and why 2016’s convention could be very different from the dull … Continue reading →

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The President Should Be Impeached For Suspending the Employer Mandate

by James J Heaney Posted on 5 July 2015

I wrote a version of this post on reddit about nearly two years ago.  I finally got sick of digging out the link, so I am finally getting it up on De Civ. BACKGROUND On July 2, 2013, Assistant Secretary of … Continue reading →

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Net Neutrality: A Sorta-Technical Overview

by James J Heaney Posted on 4 February 2015

This is the text of a talk I recently gave at the monthly meeting of Twin Cities Catholic I.T. Professionals, Inc..  It is aimed at computer professionals who want to get a deeper understanding of net neutrality, and goes into … Continue reading →

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The Average American Wants BOTH Gay Marriage AND Extreme Abortion Restrictions

by James J Heaney Posted on 20 October 2014

One of my occasional themes here at De Civ has been the fact that one of the most common, most influential tropes in American politics is completely wrong.  Most commentators think that abortion and marriage are politically linked: if abortion restriction … Continue reading →

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