Category Archives: Horse Race

Why have a winner if you don’t keep score?

Three Ways to Watch the Presidential Returns

by James J Heaney Posted on 8 November 2016

The day of the Brexit vote, the very first constituency to report results, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, reported a defeat for Brexit, 51%-49%. The defeat for Brexit there was expected. However, the margin was wrong: experts had expected Brexit to fail in Newcastle … Continue reading →

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Trump for Thee but Not for Me

by James J Heaney Posted on 22 October 2016

Oh, look, another comment on the 2016 election. I can’t seem to escape it. At least I’ve made it a whole year without ever using a Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton photograph as a featured image. One of the things … Continue reading →

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De Civitate’s Delegate Loyalty Tracker

by James J Heaney Posted on 14 April 2016

UPDATE 10 MAY 2016: In light of Trump’s presumptive nomination, Saturday’s delegate results (which were basically “Everything’s Coming Up Trump”), and the fact that it has become even harder to track delegate loyalties now that there’s only one candidate in the … Continue reading →

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Quantifying the Kasich Spoiler Effect

by James J Heaney Posted on 17 March 2016

According to exit polls, if John Kasich dropped out of the presidential race, 45% of his voters would stay home.  37% would vote for Ted Cruz.  18% would vote for Donald Trump. These are the numbers FiveThirtyEight computed last week, which … Continue reading →

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The March 15th Panic Has Begun: A Reply to Tim Alberta

by James J Heaney Posted on 14 March 2016

Mr. Tim Alberta, a generally commendable fellow whose columns I typically enjoy, has a piece up at National Review today arguing that, if Donald Trump wins both Ohio and Florida tomorrow, it will be “nearly impossible” for his only viable competitor, … Continue reading →

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The De Civitate Poor Man’s Stop-Trump Delegate Tracker

by James J Heaney Posted on 14 March 2016

Skip To: May 3 | April 26 | April 19 | April 6 | March 22 | March 15 | March 12 | March 8 | March 6 | March 1 A few weeks ago, I wrote a fairly popular post, “Trump’s Delegate … Continue reading →

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