Category Archives: Politics

Why Republicans Will Always Lose, by Douglas Adams

Reading the much-talked-about GOP “autopsy” today, trying to put together some impromptu thoughts about it for a Senate District meeting tonight, I find myself reminded of a passage from Douglas Adams’ novel Life, The Universe, and Everything.  Slartibartfast, a hapless … Continue reading

Posted in Mere Opinion, Politics | 1,803 Comments

Who Wins? A 2012 Projection Based on the Partisan Skew Hypothesis

In my recent (and surprisingly popular) post about the weirdly good polls the Democrats have been seeing recently, I suggested that the polls might be suffering from an unidentified systemic source of bias.  I promised a followup discussing the implications … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis, Horse Race, Politics | 1,796 Comments

The Great Democratic Turnout Miracle

During this cycle, likely voter polls have consistently shown more Democrats showing up to vote than Republicans. Actually, that is a bit of an understatement.  It is perfectly normal for Democrats to outnumber Republicans, even at the polls, even in strong Republican … Continue reading

Posted in Horse Race, Mere Opinion, Politics | 2,546 Comments